Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point? PDF (Adobe DRM) download by Mitali Das

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication date: January 2013
ISBN: 9781475594058
Digital Book format: PDF (Adobe DRM)

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China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios-with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity-may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.
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Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point? PDF (Adobe DRM) download by Mitali Das
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, January 2013
ISBN: 9781475594058
EAN:  9781475594058
PDF (Adobe DRM)
List Price: $9.00 eBook price: $6.99
Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point? ePub (Adobe DRM) download by Mitali Das
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, January 2013
ISBN: 9781475525199
EAN:  9781475525199
ePub (Adobe DRM)
List Price: $9.00 eBook price: $6.99