Oil Prices and Bank Profitability: Evidence from Major Oil-Exporting Countries in the Middle East and North Africa PDF (Adobe DRM) download by Heiko Hesse

Oil Prices and Bank Profitability: Evidence from Major Oil-Exporting Countries in the Middle East and North Africa

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication date: July 2006
ISBN: 9781451873672
Digital Book format: PDF (Adobe DRM)

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The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue to experience appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt. Our estimates point to somewhat larger disequilibria than those of IMF country teams, however, any estimates of equilibrium exchange rates are subject to sizable uncertainty.
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