Operations Against Enemy Leaders

By Stephen T. Hosmer

Rand Corporation
Publication date: October 2001

ISBN: 9780833032348

Digital Book format: PDF (Adobe DRM)

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Operations targeted against senior enemy leaders have long been viewed as apotential means of shaping the policy and behavior of enemy states. As aresult, the United States has launched a variety of overt and covertoperations in efforts to attack enemy leaders directly, facilitate theiroverthrow by coup or rebellion, or secure their ouster through externalinvasion. This book examines a number of leadership attacks from World WarII to the present to offer insights into the comparative efficacy of variousforms of leadership attacks, their potential coercive and deterrent value,and the possible unintended consequences of their ill-considered use. Thebook concludes that direct attacks, coups, and rebellions have met with onlylimited success and, even when successful, have sometimes yieldedcounterproductive results. Moreover, neither direct attacks nor coups havebeen of significant coercive or deterrent value, although rebellions have attimes provided useful negotiating leverage. By contrast, external invasionshave proved to be more efficacious both in shaping the targeted countries_policy and behavior and in exerting coercive effects. The book concludes byoutlining the likely conditions under which future leadership attacks arelikely to be sanctioned and by delineating the prerequisites of effectiveuse of air power in such contexts.