The End of an Era? The Medium- and Long-term Effects of the Global Crisis on Growth in Low-Income Countries PDF (Adobe DRM) download by Chris Papageorgiou

The End of an Era? The Medium- and Long-term Effects of the Global Crisis on Growth in Low-Income Countries

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication date: January 2006
ISBN: 9781455205363
Digital Book format: PDF (Adobe DRM)

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This paper shows that the behavior of entrepreneurs facing incomplete financial markets and risky investment can explain why growth accelerations in developing countries tend to be associated with current account improvements. The uninsurable risk of losing invested capital forces entrepreneurs to rely on self-financing, so that when business opportunities open up entrepreneurs increase saving to finance the investment that produces growth. The key insight is that saving has to rise more than investment to allow also for the accumulation of precautionary assets. Plausibly calibrated simulations show that this net saving increase can sustain large and persistent net capital outflows.
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