Today versus Tomorrow: The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income PDF (Adobe DRM) download by Tamim Bayoumi

Today versus Tomorrow: The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication date: February 2005
ISBN: 9781451873955
Digital Book format: PDF (Adobe DRM)

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This paper proposes an integrated approach to fiscal policy analysis in oil producing countries (OPCs) geared towards addressing their unique and complex policy challenges. First, an accurate assessment of the fiscal stance in OPCs can be obscured by large and volatile oil revenue flows. Second, uncertain and volatile oil revenue flows can complicate the management of macroeconomic policies in these countries. Third, given the exhaustibility of oil reserves, OPCs need to address longer-term sustainability and intergenerational equity issues. The use of non-oil fiscal indicators, stress tests, medium-term frameworks, and permanent oil income models can greatly aid in addressing these challenges.
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